Happy Super Tuesday From The Bellwether State (Updated)

Are you just feeling super?

From Wikipedia

The Missouri bellwether is a political phenomenon that notes that the state of Missouri has voted for the winner in every U.S. Presidential election beginning in 1904 except in 1956. Missouri is also considered a bellwether of U.S. views on hot-button social issues such as stem cell research, school vouchers, and same-sex marriage. Some economists also consider the state a bellwether for economic trends such as consumer confidence and unemployment.

In ‘56, the state went for neighboring Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson.

I was trying to think last night and I don’t ever remember voting in a primary. I thought it would be best to continue with something that has worked out so well for me. I dislike this whole “Super Tuesday” idea. Come to think of it, I distrust the word “Super”, used in any context. And, “Super” politics is, in my mind, the worst. Super!!!

Even though I have decided not to participate in all of this Superness, I did pass by my normal polling place and turnout appears to be super low. At least in southern, Stone County, which is in the very southwest part of the bellwether state. People in Stone County, like to think that they are independent minded and a little different from the rest of the state. But, I’ve found that people in every county of every state, like to think that they are independent minded and a little different from the rest of the state.

All that aside, I have noticed a couple of interesting developments here in the old bellwether. One, I have talked to quite a few Democrats who say that they kinda like ol’ Mike Huckabee. Two, I know several Republicans that seem fond of Barack Obama.

Now, when people throw out information of this sort, in a casual conversation; what does it mean?
I don’t necessarily think that it means that they will be jumping ship and crossing party lines. But, it could mean that given certain circumstances. I think that it indicates that the “likability” factor is in play around here.

People around here, even the small contingent of Democrats, seem to perceive Huckabee as being like “one of us”. You could picture running in to him while having coffee at Ma’s Place or see him out on the lake bass fishing. So, I think that you may get a little of the Adlai Stevenson syndrome with Huck. If he does well here today, it’s because he’s semi local.

Now, the Obama phenomenon is a little more salient. I think that he also has a likability factor going for him. There is also the “change” thing. People seem to want “change”. They don’t know what to change or how to change it but, they want it. When someone comes along and aggressively markets the idea of “change”, people buy into it.

What is unique about the Obama thing is that I’m hearing Republican’s say things like; “He’s an impressive speaker”, or, “He has a lot of charisma”. Are these implications that bellwether Republicans may cross the party line in a general election?

Now, I will be surprised if Hillary Clinton gets the nod in Missouri. I don’t think she plays here in Stone County. She may have more leverage in K.C. or the Lou but, not around here. So, if Obama does well in Missouri today, that will be significant. That’s what to watch for with this bellwether business today.

Huckabee may actually be taking votes away from McCain in Missouri today, as opposed to the wisdom that, in most areas, his presence is weakening Romney. In other words, if Huck were not on the ballot today, McCain would take Romney handily in Missouri.

Regardless of what you hear on talk radio and from pundits who are not privy to the pulse of fly-over country, Romney isn’t playing here either. Let me put it this way; if the general election came down to Romney vs. Obama, I could see a lot of these Stone County Republicans, that are falling under the Obama ether, jumping ship. I don’t see that if it’s Obama vs. McCain.

These opinions, of course, are entirely formed by my conversations with people in Stone County. No polling data or market surveys.

If you believe in the bellwether phenomenon watch how Obama does today in Missouri.

UPDATE:
Having weathered the hailstorm and tornado, I am leisurely sitting in the Winnebago and playing the resonator guitar. As I pick the blues, I am simultaneously watching live streaming video coverage from CNN.com. They are calling their coverage “Super Duper Tuesday”. Maddening-Sickening.

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Tags: Barack Obama, bellwether state, change, hillary clinton, likability factor, McCain, mike huckabee, Romney