Presidential Election Metric

Are you wondering who is going to win the Presidential election? Are you watching the polls, following the media coverage, looking at all of the endless analysis?

Clive Crook over at FT says that you need not pay attention to any of it.

Alan Abramowitz, a politics scholar at Emory University, has shown that summer head-to-head polls convey almost no information about the forthcoming election. (Subsequent head-to-head polls are not much better.) Instead, he has a simple “electoral barometer” that weighs together the approval rating of the incumbent president, the economy’s economic growth rate and whether the president’s party has controlled the White House for two terms (the “time for a change” factor). This laughably simple metric has correctly forecast the winner of the popular vote in 14 out of 15 postwar presidential elections.

According to the metric, Obama wins in a rout.

Tags: Alan Abramowitz, change, clive crook, who is going to win the presidential election

"Presidential Election Metric" by Pribek was published on July 25th, 2008 and is listed in Political.

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Comments on "Presidential Election Metric": 5 Comments

Pat Darnell and Friends wrote,

Then it is time right now to get on that mastodon of marketing —
economy will pick up right after the election. I say Democrats were picked back at the last Bilkenberger [sp] meeting. We should have kept our promise to ourselves.

Whatever, there is still time to open your Small businesses!! Top positions in management needed in these arenas immediately:
*Roadside attractions
*Baby Daddy’s Ribs and Emporium
*Big and Tall Stores
*Return to Decency Jeffersons Movin’ on Up Ind.
*Half Way Hotel Franchises
*Dennis Rodman T-ball Clubs USA International
*Toni Robbins “I Don’t want to Scare ya now, But Rev Wright is here” Motivational Events
*Famous Amos Eat up Enterprises
*Once gone Black Exhibitions and Conventions –and–
*Devonshire Muslims for Hire
*Chicago and Cut yo’ Nuts both start with C sterilization studios
*Annex Cuba Bridge Building Institute

and thousands more…

Just send a SASE to me with a ten in it. I’ll send you the list; so you too can be ready to capitalize on up-swing in economy.

Link | July 25th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
Pat Darnell and Friends wrote,

Remember this? From Super Duper Bellwether Missouri Tuesday?? –

Pribek’s challenge… 5 Feb 2008

Huckabee may actually be taking votes away from McCain in Missouri today, as opposed to the wisdom that, in most areas, his presence is weakening Romney. In other words, if Huck were not on the ballot today, McCain would take Romney handily in Missouri.

Regardless of what you here on talk radio and from pundits who are not privy to the pulse of fly-over country, Romney isn’t playing here either. Let me put it this way; if the general election came down to Romney vs. Obama, I could see a lot of these Stone County Republicans, that are falling under the Obama ether, jumping ship. I don’t see that if it’s Obama vs. McCain.

These opinions, of course, are entirely formed by my conversations with people in Stone County. No polling data or market surveys.

If you believe in the bellwether phenomenon watch how Obama does today in Missouri.Happy Super Tuesday From The Bellwether State (Updated)

Pribek was pulling a check bet on that Feb day, passed on voting in the MO primary… as I was check bet, I didn’t vote in the TX primaries…

I think we all sensed the advent of the Obamamanna Shah-ballama man-child mystic Tigre-tracker baracker… even back then in February, mainly because all the Pharisees were woefully showing their bitter scared stiff evil jealous self’s in all institutions: media, view, church, DC, rainbow coalition, X’s, pissed off black women’s, hispanic outrage…. to name a few… no? Made me think; “Ahhh, Obama is to be sacrificial lamb winner to the stiff necks and hardened hearted people who think they are the messiah this time.. anything that pisses off Jesse James has got to be the truth.”

Realistically, I give the first black/white muslim senator president two years before his regime lists and sinks… but until then this is the time to find the industrial key to turn and make us some mo money… we need start up capital, all of us. Thats about 29 months to find the next “Billiard and Melingua Gates” portal to stealing a god-awful mega-fortune. Amen.

Link | July 25th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Pribek wrote,

PD-The Carney’s are just now showing up at the fairground. I saw Dick Morris on Fox, earlier tonight saying that if Obama is ahead in the polls come October, Israel will invade Iran.

also, you might find this one interesting

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3utyNZZDYXM

Link | July 25th, 2008 at 11:06 pm
J wrote,

Happiness is a measurement of how much a Pokémon loves its Trainer and enjoys being in their care.

—http://bulbapedia.bulbagarden.net/wiki/Happiness

Link | July 26th, 2008 at 5:16 am
Pat Darnell and Friends wrote,

Followup sometimes pays off: Look what has popped up in the last five days…

First I see this in my reading list at KABOBfest: With Friends Like these: Ludicris…

Which reminds me of this comment 25 JUL 2008:
“PD-The Carney’s are just now showing up at the fairground. I saw Dick Morris on Fox, earlier tonight saying that if Obama is ahead in the polls come October, Israel will invade Iran.”

And in the KABOBfest comments is this: Mustache Wars: Hamas-Fatah…

“The Aksa Martyrs Brigades issued a statement strongly condemning the shaving of Namnam’s mustache and threatening retaliation. It said that Namnam and his son were also tortured while in detention.
Earlier this year, another senior Fatah official, Ibrahim Abu al-Naja, also lost his mustache in the power struggle with Hamas.”

So then only a month ago was the news: Mustache Chronicles

I bring this up because the whole thing is about Mastering your album, that is probably nameless and in no particular order up to this point:

I have a tentative (weather permitting) meeting with Bill Dees this afternoon. We’ve mixed the record and the next step is to send it off to mastering. The mastering process is very mysterious. …Mastering is tweaking. It can turn out bad, for sure. It can be like trying to even up your mustache or shortening a table leg. Conversely, mastering done well, can take your record to a whole new level.

While your mustaches go hay-licked by cows, you conclude: “But, what are you going to do? I guess I could just bag it and go for the Billy Gibbons look.”

Mastering is having another set of ears, professional ears, give your hard work a final say. …(Pribek; 11 Feb 2008)

conclusion — you have a new category: Mustache –Facial Hair

And — it of course is emerging as a bellwether indicator…

Realistically, as code word Mustache is our new signal to give the first black/white muslim senator turned president two years before his regime lists and sinks… until then this is the time to find the industrial key to turn and make us some mo money… we need start up capital, all of us. Thats about 29 months to find the next “Billiard and Melingua Gates” portal to stealing a god-awful mega-fortune from John Q unsuspecting Public!!!… Amen.

Just a quick thought for the day! pd/mpw

Link | July 31st, 2008 at 7:57 pm